Consumption Prospects and Rebalancing
{ Posted on Jan 20 2010 by Menzie Chinn }
In several previous posts, I've emphasized the importance of future US consumption behavior in determining whether the global imbalances shrink, or revert to their pre-crisis configuration. [0] [1] [2] An IMF SPN by Jaewoo Lee, Pau Rabanal, and Damiano Sandri weighs in on the question of consumption. From the executive summary:
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I think Cedric has it about right here.
I would note, however, that best I can tell, the Chinese economy has indeed de-coupled from the US economy. December GDP growth there was reported at 10.7%.
Also, in principle, we should be migrating natural gas to use as a transportation fuel. The gallon cost equivalent of natural gas would be $1.17 today, as opposed to a national average of $2.63 for regular gasoline. Such a migration would help the economy in any number of ways.
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