Investing to Wealth

Or, counterfactuals, yet again.

Or, rejoinder to Casey Mulligan, Joseph Lawler, david, tim kemper and others.

From the WSJ March survey survey of forecasters, the results indicate that instead of the 0.15% growth rate recorded in 09Q4 y/y growth, the growth rate would have been -0.93%. For 2010Q4 Q4/Q4 growth, they forecast 3% growth, and in the absence of the ARRA, they would have predicted 2.2% growth.