Archive for the ‘financial markets’ Category:

"What Predicts a Credit Boom Bust?"

{ Posted on Sep 25 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
From Chapter 1 of the IMF’s recent World Economic Outlook (Box 1.2), a set of findings by Jörg Decressin and Marco Terrones: The econometric results confirm that net capital inflows, financial sector reform, and total factor productivity are good predictors of ...Read More »

Lost Decades:The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery

{ Posted on Sep 19 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
From the preface to Lost Decades, published today (9/19) by W.W. Norton: The United States ... lost the first decade of the twenty-first century to an ill-conceived boom and a subsequent bust. It is in danger of losing another decade to an incomplete ...Read More »

Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery

{ Posted on Sep 19 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
From the preface to Lost Decades, published today (9/19) by W.W. Norton: The United States ... lost the first decade of the twenty-first century to an ill-conceived boom and a subsequent bust. It is in danger of losing another decade to an incomplete ...Read More »

Losing your AAA

{ Posted on Aug 10 2011 by James Hamilton }
On Friday, Standard & Poor's, one of the three main credit rating agencies, downgraded U.S. Treasury debt from AAA to AA+, citing doubts about the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions in being able to deal ...Read More »

When Price Does Not Clear the Market

{ Posted on Jun 16 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
And other non-Neoclassical tales Finance and Development has a profile of one of my teachers, Nobel Laureate George Akerlof, written by Prakash Loungani. Akerlof's views are critical to recall in these times when some individuals think supply and demand are sufficient ...Read More »

Some Brief Thoughts on Sovereign Defaults

{ Posted on Jun 01 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
Sovereign default experiences are a staple in international finance. Here are a couple bits of information from a vast literature. Read More »

Measuring systemic financial risk

{ Posted on May 22 2011 by James Hamilton }
On a recent visit to UCSD, NYU Professor and Nobel Laureate Rob Engle called my attention to the NYU Stern Volatility Laboratory, a great resource that anyone can use to get some very interesting real-time analysis. Here I'd like ...Read More »

Real Interest Rates and Crowding Out: Reagan Era vs. Now

{ Posted on Mar 17 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
Recent commentary on whether real interest rates rose during the Reagan era tax cuts -- Kling responding to Krugman -- impelled me to look at the data... Read More »

The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable

{ Posted on Feb 03 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
From the NY Times Room for Debate forum Was the Crisis Avoidable, Jeffry Frieden writes: Read More »

The Financial Crisis, Interpreted

{ Posted on Jan 17 2011 by Menzie Chinn }
And some unanswered questions. From Jeffry Frieden, "A Classic Foreign Debt Crisis," The Political Economist 12 (2) (Fall 2010) [newsletter of the Political Economy section of APSA, not online]: Much of the popular, and scholarly, analysis of the crisis has focused on its ...Read More »